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Trump has been proclaiming since the day he took office that the market has been the best in the history of the country during his presidency. Looking at the facts, that is just not true.

For every president since we have market indicators, with very few variations,  the latest president had the highest stock market numbers. But looking at relative gains from inauguration day forward for Obama and Trump, we see a different picture.

Obama entered his presidency at the tail end of a market crash of epic proportions. The economy was in free fall at the end of Bush’s term in 2008. The chart below shows the S&P 500 index for Obama in blue and Trump in red, aligned on the left side to the inauguration date.

We can see how the free fall continued for Obama for another few weeks and then the graph started going up steeply and steadily for the next year, before it dipped again.

Trump’s index also rose steadily for about a year and a quarter, before its first dip. Trump’s slope is actually more modest than Obama’s was, and Trump’s S&P gains never went over 50%, while Obama’s were beyond 80% at about 1,000 days.

S&P percentage performance from Inauguration Day, Trump vs. Obama [click to enlarge]

I often hear complaints from the right about how the economy suffered under Obama. It really didn’t. There were several things that were bothersome: The recovery took a long time, probably due to significant regulatory burden. Unemployment improved throughout all 8 years of Obama’s presidency. While the recovery was slower than we would have liked, I would not exactly call this “suffering” and I for one never minded paying more for gas in exchange of cleaner air and water.

Trump’s stock market rose steadily too over the first 3 years, but then, unfortunately tumbled back to the beginning. It has recovered since, but there is no telling where it is going to go next.

I would certainly not make any predictions right now.

Every morning when I get up I look up into the clouds to check if there are any giant alien spaceships floating above our cities ready to laser-beam us to annihilation. I would not be surprised to see those in the second half of 2020.

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