Facts About “the Surge”

According to our military commanders in Iraq, the surge started about mid February. Here is more information.

The table below shows the numbers of deaths in Iraq. The green columns show the number of total military (mostly US) that died, per month and the number of Iraqis (note that the Iraqi numbers are estimates, since the counts come from news media releases, not accurate counts).

The blue columns show the 24 months preceding the surge.

Period US UK Other Total DayCount Avg Iraq
Total 4177 176 138 4491 2025 2.22 42624
Oct-08 1 0 0 1 3 0.33 27
Sep-08 25 0 0 25 30 0.83 366
Aug-08 23 0 0 23 31 0.74 311
Jul-08 13 0 0 13 31 0.42 419
Jun-08 29 0 2 31 30 1.03 450
May-08 19 0 2 21 31 0.68 506
Apr-08 52 0 0 52 30 1.73 744
Mar-08 39 1 0 40 31 1.29 980
Feb-08 29 1 0 30 29 1.03 674
Jan-08 40 0 0 40 31 1.29 554
Dec-07 23 1 1 25 31 0.81 548
Nov-07 37 2 1 40 30 1.33 560
Oct-07 38 1 1 40 31 1.29 679
Sep-07 66 2 2 70 30 2.33 848
Aug-07 84 4 0 88 31 2.84 1,674
Jul-07 80 8 1 89 31 2.87 1,690
Jun-07 101 7 0 108 30 3.6 1,345
May-07 126 3 2 131 31 4.23 1,980
Apr-07 104 12 1 117 30 3.9 1,821
Mar-07 81 1 0 82 31 2.65 2,977
Feb-07 81 3 1 85 28 3.04 3,014
Jan-07 83 3 0 86 31 2.77 1,802
Dec-06 112 1 2 115 31 3.71 1,752
Nov-06 70 6 2 78 30 2.6 1,864
Oct-06 106 2 2 110 31 3.55 1,539
Sep-06 72 3 2 77 30 2.57 3,539
Aug-06 65 1 0 66 31 2.13 2,966
Jul-06 43 1 2 46 31 1.48 1,280
Jun-06 61 0 2 63 30 2.1 870
May-06 69 9 1 79 31 2.55 1,119
Apr-06 76 1 5 82 30 2.73 1,009
Mar-06 31 0 2 33 31 1.06 1,092
Feb-06 55 3 0 58 28 2.07 846
Jan-06 62 2 0 64 31 2.06 779
Dec-05 68 0 0 68 31 2.19  
Nov-05 84 1 1 86 30 2.87  
Oct-05 96 2 1 99 31 3.19  
Sep-05 49 3 0 52 30 1.73  
Aug-05 85 0 0 85 31 2.74  
Jul-05 54 3 1 58 31 1.87  
Jun-05 78 1 4 83 30 2.77  
May-05 80 2 6 88 31 2.84  
Apr-05 52 0 0 52 30 1.73  
Mar-05 35 1 3 39 31 1.26  
Feb-05 58 0 2 60 28 2.14  
Jan-05 107 10 10 127 31 4.1  
Dec-04 72 1 3 76 31 2.45  
Nov-04 137 4 0 141 30 4.7  
Oct-04 64 2 2 68 31 2.19  
Sep-04 80 3 4 87 30 2.9  
Aug-04 66 4 5 75 31 2.42  
Jul-04 54 1 3 58 31 1.87  
Jun-04 42 1 7 50 30 1.67  
May-04 80 0 4 84 31 2.71  
Apr-04 135 0 5 140 30 4.67  
Mar-04 52 0 0 52 31 1.68  
Feb-04 20 1 2 23 29 0.79  
Jan-04 47 5 0 52 31 1.68  
Dec-03 40 0 8 48 31 1.55  
Nov-03 82 1 27 110 30 3.67  
Oct-03 44 1 2 47 31 1.52  
Sep-03 31 1 1 33 30 1.1  
Aug-03 35 6 2 43 31 1.39  
Jul-03 48 1 0 49 31 1.58  
Jun-03 30 6 0 36 30 1.2  
May-03 37 4 1 42 31 1.35  
Apr-03 74 6 0 80 30 2.67  
Mar-03 65 27 0 92 12 7.67  

The Bush administration claims that the surge worked. Let’s take a look at averages:

Average military deaths since the surge 29.38
Average Iraqi deaths since the surge 556.25
Average military deaths over 24 months before the surge 75.33
Average Iraqi deaths over 24 months before the surge 1557.00

Clearly, now that ONLY 29.38 military staff die per month, versus 75.33 before February 2008, this is viewed as a success.

McCain and Palin claim that the surge worked. What is the definition of “worked?” If it means sending 30,000 more soldiers overseas, away from their families, and into harm’s way, to achieve 45 people less a month killed, then yes, it worked.

How do we know that the 30,000 people made the difference? Could it have been something else in the 100,000 variables that also changed?

I believe that 29.38 deaths a month are 29.38 too many.

In my plan, the toll would have been zero starting February 2008. No soldiers, no dead soldiers.

Palin would have told me I was waving the white flag of surrender.

Tell that to the mothers of the 29.38 soldiers.

Under my plan, 240 American young men and women would now be alive, and 130,000 would be home with their families, $100 billion would not have been spent.

Surrender?

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