According to our military commanders in Iraq, the surge started about mid February. Here is more information.
The table below shows the numbers of deaths in Iraq. The green columns show the number of total military (mostly US) that died, per month and the number of Iraqis (note that the Iraqi numbers are estimates, since the counts come from news media releases, not accurate counts).
The blue columns show the 24 months preceding the surge.
Period | US | UK | Other | Total | DayCount | Avg | Iraq |
Total | 4177 | 176 | 138 | 4491 | 2025 | 2.22 | 42624 |
Oct-08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.33 | 27 |
Sep-08 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 30 | 0.83 | 366 |
Aug-08 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 31 | 0.74 | 311 |
Jul-08 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 31 | 0.42 | 419 |
Jun-08 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 30 | 1.03 | 450 |
May-08 | 19 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 31 | 0.68 | 506 |
Apr-08 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 52 | 30 | 1.73 | 744 |
Mar-08 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 31 | 1.29 | 980 |
Feb-08 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 29 | 1.03 | 674 |
Jan-08 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 31 | 1.29 | 554 |
Dec-07 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 31 | 0.81 | 548 |
Nov-07 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 30 | 1.33 | 560 |
Oct-07 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 40 | 31 | 1.29 | 679 |
Sep-07 | 66 | 2 | 2 | 70 | 30 | 2.33 | 848 |
Aug-07 | 84 | 4 | 0 | 88 | 31 | 2.84 | 1,674 |
Jul-07 | 80 | 8 | 1 | 89 | 31 | 2.87 | 1,690 |
Jun-07 | 101 | 7 | 0 | 108 | 30 | 3.6 | 1,345 |
May-07 | 126 | 3 | 2 | 131 | 31 | 4.23 | 1,980 |
Apr-07 | 104 | 12 | 1 | 117 | 30 | 3.9 | 1,821 |
Mar-07 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 82 | 31 | 2.65 | 2,977 |
Feb-07 | 81 | 3 | 1 | 85 | 28 | 3.04 | 3,014 |
Jan-07 | 83 | 3 | 0 | 86 | 31 | 2.77 | 1,802 |
Dec-06 | 112 | 1 | 2 | 115 | 31 | 3.71 | 1,752 |
Nov-06 | 70 | 6 | 2 | 78 | 30 | 2.6 | 1,864 |
Oct-06 | 106 | 2 | 2 | 110 | 31 | 3.55 | 1,539 |
Sep-06 | 72 | 3 | 2 | 77 | 30 | 2.57 | 3,539 |
Aug-06 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 66 | 31 | 2.13 | 2,966 |
Jul-06 | 43 | 1 | 2 | 46 | 31 | 1.48 | 1,280 |
Jun-06 | 61 | 0 | 2 | 63 | 30 | 2.1 | 870 |
May-06 | 69 | 9 | 1 | 79 | 31 | 2.55 | 1,119 |
Apr-06 | 76 | 1 | 5 | 82 | 30 | 2.73 | 1,009 |
Mar-06 | 31 | 0 | 2 | 33 | 31 | 1.06 | 1,092 |
Feb-06 | 55 | 3 | 0 | 58 | 28 | 2.07 | 846 |
Jan-06 | 62 | 2 | 0 | 64 | 31 | 2.06 | 779 |
Dec-05 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 31 | 2.19 | |
Nov-05 | 84 | 1 | 1 | 86 | 30 | 2.87 | |
Oct-05 | 96 | 2 | 1 | 99 | 31 | 3.19 | |
Sep-05 | 49 | 3 | 0 | 52 | 30 | 1.73 | |
Aug-05 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 31 | 2.74 | |
Jul-05 | 54 | 3 | 1 | 58 | 31 | 1.87 | |
Jun-05 | 78 | 1 | 4 | 83 | 30 | 2.77 | |
May-05 | 80 | 2 | 6 | 88 | 31 | 2.84 | |
Apr-05 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 52 | 30 | 1.73 | |
Mar-05 | 35 | 1 | 3 | 39 | 31 | 1.26 | |
Feb-05 | 58 | 0 | 2 | 60 | 28 | 2.14 | |
Jan-05 | 107 | 10 | 10 | 127 | 31 | 4.1 | |
Dec-04 | 72 | 1 | 3 | 76 | 31 | 2.45 | |
Nov-04 | 137 | 4 | 0 | 141 | 30 | 4.7 | |
Oct-04 | 64 | 2 | 2 | 68 | 31 | 2.19 | |
Sep-04 | 80 | 3 | 4 | 87 | 30 | 2.9 | |
Aug-04 | 66 | 4 | 5 | 75 | 31 | 2.42 | |
Jul-04 | 54 | 1 | 3 | 58 | 31 | 1.87 | |
Jun-04 | 42 | 1 | 7 | 50 | 30 | 1.67 | |
May-04 | 80 | 0 | 4 | 84 | 31 | 2.71 | |
Apr-04 | 135 | 0 | 5 | 140 | 30 | 4.67 | |
Mar-04 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 52 | 31 | 1.68 | |
Feb-04 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 29 | 0.79 | |
Jan-04 | 47 | 5 | 0 | 52 | 31 | 1.68 | |
Dec-03 | 40 | 0 | 8 | 48 | 31 | 1.55 | |
Nov-03 | 82 | 1 | 27 | 110 | 30 | 3.67 | |
Oct-03 | 44 | 1 | 2 | 47 | 31 | 1.52 | |
Sep-03 | 31 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 30 | 1.1 | |
Aug-03 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 43 | 31 | 1.39 | |
Jul-03 | 48 | 1 | 0 | 49 | 31 | 1.58 | |
Jun-03 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 36 | 30 | 1.2 | |
May-03 | 37 | 4 | 1 | 42 | 31 | 1.35 | |
Apr-03 | 74 | 6 | 0 | 80 | 30 | 2.67 | |
Mar-03 | 65 | 27 | 0 | 92 | 12 | 7.67 |
The Bush administration claims that the surge worked. Let’s take a look at averages:
Average military deaths since the surge | 29.38 |
Average Iraqi deaths since the surge | 556.25 |
Average military deaths over 24 months before the surge | 75.33 |
Average Iraqi deaths over 24 months before the surge | 1557.00 |
Clearly, now that ONLY 29.38 military staff die per month, versus 75.33 before February 2008, this is viewed as a success.
McCain and Palin claim that the surge worked. What is the definition of “worked?” If it means sending 30,000 more soldiers overseas, away from their families, and into harm’s way, to achieve 45 people less a month killed, then yes, it worked.
How do we know that the 30,000 people made the difference? Could it have been something else in the 100,000 variables that also changed?
I believe that 29.38 deaths a month are 29.38 too many.
In my plan, the toll would have been zero starting February 2008. No soldiers, no dead soldiers.
Palin would have told me I was waving the white flag of surrender.
Tell that to the mothers of the 29.38 soldiers.
Under my plan, 240 American young men and women would now be alive, and 130,000 would be home with their families, $100 billion would not have been spent.
Surrender?